German indicators

A note about timing

Defying stereotypes of Teutonic precision, the release dates of nearly all information are vague -- the Bundesbank may announce the crucial M3 money supply any time between the 15th and the 25th of each month.

Only unemployment figures have a scheduled release. But the Labour Office which collects the figures often reveals them to a select few beforehand, so that, by the afternoon before release, the market is flooded with informed estimates.

The usual week of release of each number has been indicated in parentheses.

Regional weighting

Since reunification, indicators are usually divided into western German and eastern German, and calculated as pan-German. Eastern Germany generally contributes about 10 to 15% of the pan-German total. Western Germany particularly dominates retail sales calculations. But eastern Germany is important in the area of construction, and heavy industry such as coal-mining and chemicals.

The importance of each indicator for the Bundesbank, which sets interest rates, and the markets is marked from one to five in parentheses, with one denoting great importance.

Balance of trade
Capital account
Cost of living
Current account
Gross domestic product
Ifo survey
Import prices
Industrial production
M3
Manufacturing orders
Manufacturing production
Producer price index
Retail sales
Unemployment
Wholesale price index

M3 (1) (second week)
Probably the most important number on the German economic calendar because it is watched so closely by the Bundesbank. M3 is a broad measure of money supply which includes notes, coins, cheque accounts and deposits maturing within four years.
The bank treats money supply as an indicator of inflationary pressures. So a small growth in M3 is good news for the inflation-wary Bundesbank and may give it confidence to ease its monetary policy. Monetary officials set an annual target range for M3, taking as its base the money supply figures in the last quarter of the previous year. The growth over the year so far is annualised and compared to the base. The target range for M3 in 1998 is 3.0% to 6.0% growth from base.

Cost-of-living (2) (first week)
A measure of prices charged in shops for a range of key goods, including food and heating oil. As its name indicates, the number is the most obvious gauge of inflation for the public. The final cost of living is previewed by numbers for the four leading German states and for western Germany. Both are released in the last week of the month under calculation.

Unemployment (2) (first week)
For politicians this is the most important statistic. The jobless total is the highest since the 1930s and chancellor Helmut Kohl seems set to pay the price for this at the federal elections in September.
Unemployment is also exerting an unusually strong influence over monetary policy decisions at the Bundesbank. Some central bankers want to raise interest rates soon to bolster the future European single currency, but this will be hard to justify on domestic grounds unless the jobless total falls sharply. The Bundesbank is paying more attention to the unemployment number now than it has in recent years, when it said politicians should take charge of labour market issues.

Ifo survey (2) (third week)
A survey of business sentiment, produced by a private research body. The base year for the index is 1991: the base is 100. The feasible range for business sentiment is 80 to 120 -- the higher the number, the greater the level of business confidence. But the measure is most valuable when measured relative to previous months, quarters and years. The Bundesbank takes increasing notice of this survey.

Industrial production (3) (first week)
Manufacturing production plus mining, energy and forestry. These additions make the number more volatile than manufacturing.

Manufacturing orders (3) (first week)
A measure of orders for German manufactures and an advance indicator of German economic health.

Manufacturing production (3) (first week)
The volume of production over the month.

Producer price index (3) (third week)
The prices for a range of key goods charged at the factory gate. An increase may not immediately push up consumer prices, as retailers are wary of choking demand.

Retail sales (3) (second week)
An indicator of future consumption. If consumption grows faster than production, this can lead to inflation.

Import prices (4) (fourth week)
The price of imports, an indicator of inflation.

Balance of trade (4) (second week)
The surplus or deficit on the trade in goods

Current account (4) (second week)
Germany's economic transactions, with the rest of the world, including goods, services, investment, and capital movements. The current account (goods, services and interest payments) is the most frequently used measure of Germany's international trade. The amount of money spent abroad by German tourists often contributes to a current account deficit.

Wholesale price index (4) (third week)
The wholesale price of key goods.

Capital account (5) (third week)
Germany's capital transactions with the rest of the world, mainly investments, grants and loans.

Gross domestic product (GDP) (5) (second week)
Gross domestic product is Germany's total output. It is not particularly important because it is historic. It may be revised after its release.